at the later stage, spring ploughing has been carried out in full swing, and the supply and demand of agricultural materials are booming. however, under the impact of the epidemic, logistics and resumption of work are still affected to varying degrees. although agricultural enterprises have resumed their work one after another, the upstream and downstream of the whole industry are faced with different degrees of difficulties, such as shortage of raw materials, limited supply chain, etc., which lead to the price rise of some agricultural products.
fertilizer increased in varying degrees,
it will last for some time
affected by raw materials, the prices of urea, phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer have risen one after another. most of the compound fertilizer enterprises have a small reserve stock and a large number of orders to be issued. in some cases, there is a situation of waiting for goods outside the factory of the fleet, and the quotation also starts to rise, with an increase of 50-100 yuan / ton.
it is understood that hubei is a large phosphate fertilizer province in china. the production of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate accounts for a certain proportion. affected by the epidemic situation, many phosphate fertilizer enterprises in hubei have stopped production. at present, the operating rate of monoammonium enterprises in hubei is about 30-40%. most domestic compound fertilizer enterprises lack of raw materials of ammonium phosphate and face the risk of being out of stock.
in addition, at the time of spring ploughing, with the increase of demand for agricultural materials, winter wheat in the north and rice in the south have reached the peak season of fertilizer use. farmers in shandong, henan, shaanxi, jiangsu and anhui as well as liaoning, jilin, hebei and other places are actively purchasing urea. the price of urea is also rising all the way, with the increase range ranging from tens to 100 yuan per ton.
the price increase of chemical fertilizer is not all over the country. it is mainly concentrated in some areas and shows a trend of periodic increase. for example, due to the serious shortage of goods in northeast china, the resumption of work is late, and the purchase of raw materials is slow. monoammonium, diammonium and urea are all rising continuously and the supply is tight.
of course, not all enterprises are raising prices. for large enterprises, except for hubei, they have basically started construction. these enterprises have sufficient stock, high operating rate and early market start before this year. there is no problem with "spring ploughing", which can be maintained until april. in terms of price increase, these enterprises will consider the price increase brought by their own digestion costs in order not to increase the burden on farmers during the epidemic.
in fact, although the enterprise has passed down the information of price increase, it is afraid to rise abruptly because it is afraid that the downstream will not accept it. however, most dealers have psychological preparation for the price increase, and they can basically accept it when the increase is not too large.
so, the epidemic is not over, and agricultural time cannot be delayed. will fertilizer prices rise in the later period?
it can be made clear that due to the impact of supply and demand, the periodic price increase will continue, especially the situation that the inventory of agents before the spring festival is lower than that of previous years, which will definitely lead to the centralized looting and delivery at this stage. however, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, the return to work and normal production, and the end of spring ploughing, the possibility of long-term price increase is unlikely.
more importantly, since 2016, there has been an important turning point in the agricultural material industry. at one time, the price of grain in china decreased, the enthusiasm of farmers for farming decreased significantly, and the use of agricultural materials decreased significantly. china's annual production capacity of various fertilizers can reach 200 million tons, but the actual annual demand is no more than 80 million tons. the overall supply of production capacity is greater than the demand. the compound fertilizer industry has entered the era of stock.
according to xiao ran, with the continuous standardization of the fertilizer industry by the state and the continuous reduction of fertilizer use by soil and water, the agricultural material industry has not only entered the era of stock, but also the era of continuous reduction. in view of this, even if the epidemic results in periodic supply tension, the price will not rise too much.
the overall price of pesticides remains stable, and some products may soar
when the supply and demand of agricultural materials are booming, for pesticides, if the price of raw materials continues to be strong or up, the price of terminal agricultural materials will continue to show an upward trend, and the number of manufacturers who take this opportunity to raise their prices in the near future will increase.
in addition, although the state issued a series of policies to promote agricultural enterprises such as pesticides to speed up the resumption of production and establish a green channel for point-to-point transportation of agricultural materials; the ministry of agriculture and rural areas issued the national plan for prevention and control of night moths in 2020, logistics and transportation in various regions gradually recovered, and agricultural enterprises ushered in a large area of resumption of production and work. however, the epidemic situation is not over, the prevention and control is not over, and the resumption of production is still affected by the factors such as the shutdown of upstream supporting raw and auxiliary materials, the slow recovery of logistics and transportation, the delayed return of technical workers, and the limited sales promotion, etc., which leads to a large resistance to resumption. the price of some pesticide raw materials has been raised and the supply is tight.
as in the case of chemical fertilizer, the enterprises with low stock years ago were affected by the epidemic situation after the festival, which led to the price rebound after the inventory digestion of some products; however, affected by the poor logistics, the manufacturers "failed to get the finished products out and the raw materials in", which aggravated the situation of tight supply. however, compared with chemical fertilizer, the price fluctuation of pesticide is not very big.
herbicides rose slightly. the market supply of herbicides is tight and the transaction price is rising. the glyphosate raw drug market started to prepare, the logistics and transportation were eased, the supply was still tight, and the price rose to 22500 yuan / ton; the upstream production capacity of glyphosate raw drug was concentrated in hubei region, resulting in tight supply, and the quotation was increased to 130000 yuan / ton; the market quotation was stable at 37000 yuan / ton with the arrival of the season for the use of diclofenac masterbatch, and the supply of upstream raw materials was tight, leading to a new round of stock in the market it is expected to push up the market price.
in terms of selective herbicides, the market operation rate of dimethylpentylene crude drug is low and the inventory is low. with the arrival of the drug season, the market price has been pushed up to 46000 yuan / ton. due to the influence of environmental protection and epidemic situation, the production of fomesafen, fluleling, ethoxyfofen, nitsulfuronone, fenvalerate, enoxazone and isoxazolone are limited, the supply is tight, and the price is rising by a small margin. the operating rates of quizalofop and nicosulfuron were increased. the market prices were 245000 yuan / ton and 300000 yuan / ton. the supply of nicosulfuron was tight, the inventory was low, and the channel spot price rose.
at the same time, the supply of acetochlor, butachlor and atrazine is in short supply, especially the starting manufacturers of oxadiazone are few, the export order gap is large, the quotation is at a high level of 330000 yuan / ton, and the supply is still very tight.
insecticides fluctuated. affected by the epidemic situation in hubei province, the operating rate of pesticide enterprises in hubei province is low. the related market prices of abamectin refined powder are 685000 yuan / ton, that of methylaminoabamectin benzoate is 1060000 yuan / ton, and that of thiamethoxamine is 95000 yuan / ton. the supply of these products is tight and the prices are reflexive.
at the same time, furosemide, pymetrozine, acaronitrile, diphenylhydrazide, methoxyfenozide, malathion, chlorpyrifos, spirodinyl, propargylic mite, pyridaben, etc. are in the peak season of market drug use, the demand increases, and the price increases under the condition that the manufacturers are less open. at present, ninhydrin technical is relatively stable with a market price of 1.08 million yuan / ton.
with the arrival of the drug peak, the market demand for flutamide, high-efficiency cypermethrin and fludiureas broke out, and the spot price increased sharply;
however, for nicotinic crude drugs, due to the large inventory, the market demand for imidacloprid, acetamiprid and nitenpyram crude drugs is weak, and the price drops.
the overall market demand for fungicides is not strong, and the price fluctuation is small. tebuconazole, difenoconazole and other products digest the existing inventory, and the supply is still tight. due to the low operating rate, the market stock of difenoconazole, tebuconazole, tricyclazole, epoxiconazole and flusilazole is small and the supply is tight.
at present, the demand for hexazol technical drugs has started, the market supply is tight, the inventory is low, and the spot price has skyrocketed. the market price is 150000 yuan / ton. the supply of triazole fungicides such as pyrazolyl ether ester, azoxystrobin, ether ester and oximectin is still tight.
among the fungicides, the export of propiconazole technical is relatively low, the terminal demand of carbendazim technical, thiophanate methyl technical, oxamyl technical, haloperidine technical and other products is depressed, the market wait-and-see mood is much, and the price is more or less declining.
all in all, from the perspective of the market situation of various categories of pesticides, the overall market stock is relatively low. as the epidemic continues, if the production stops, some products will still face the possibility of tight supply and rising prices.
however, for some large enterprises and large platform providers, due to the sufficient stock before this year, in front of baochungeng, there is no problem in the supply of goods until the end of march, and the price will not rise too much for the time being. but for those small and medium-sized enterprises, the procurement plan was poor years ago, and the epidemic was unprepared. at the same time, these small and medium-sized enterprises are also very difficult to return to work and production. some of the products related to them are doomed to be in short supply and the prices rise accordingly.
it is reported that under the epidemic situation, spring ploughing is the primary task. the price increase of agricultural materials will converge on the premise of spring ploughing. the main reason is that farmers are very sensitive to the price increase, even if there are more than ten yuan, they will consider whether they will buy; the second reason is that there are many categories of pesticides with strong substitutability. under the condition that most of the price of pesticide products is stable, some products and single minority categories can be replaced, so the increase is only phased, and the later period will not last for long.